Colombia
In early 2026, Colombia is at a critical juncture. While the government continues to pursue its "Total Peace" (Paz Total) policy, the country is facing a significant surge in violence from non-state armed groups, a deepening humanitarian crisis, and the pressure of upcoming national elections.
1. Expansion of Armed Groups and "Total Peace"
Despite ongoing negotiations, illegal armed groups have expanded their territorial control, filling the power vacuums left in rural areas.
Fragmented Conflict: Groups such as the ELN, the Gulf Clan (Clan del Golfo), and various FARC dissident factions have increased their presence by over 30–55% in recent years. This has led to a "violent social order" in remote regions where these groups exercise quasi-governmental control.
Failure of Ceasefires: The U.S. and other international observers have noted that pauses in military operations during peace talks have sometimes emboldened these groups, leading to a 40% increase in the number of active combatants over the last three years.
2. Humanitarian Crisis: Confinement and Displacement
As of February 2026, Colombia is managing one of the world's largest internal displacement and protection crises.
"Confinement": A growing trend where armed groups prohibit entire communities from leaving their villages, effectively holding them hostage. In late 2025, over 71,000 people were reported in states of confinement, a nearly 40% increase year-over-year.
Refugee Pressure: Colombia continues to host millions of Venezuelan migrants. However, the January 2026 political upheaval in Venezuela (including the removal of the Maduro administration) has created new instability at the border, complicating humanitarian efforts and regional security.
3. Attacks on Human Rights Defenders
Colombia remains the deadliest country in the world for social leaders and environmental activists.
Systemic Killings: According to the UN, roughly three social leaders are killed every week. These individuals are targeted for defending land rights, opposing illegal mining, or supporting the implementation of the 2016 Peace Agreement.
"Unconstitutional State of Affairs": The Constitutional Court recently described the lack of protection for human rights defenders as an "unconstitutional state of affairs," mandating the government to take more aggressive action to safeguard these individuals.
4. Rights of Children and Recruitment
There has been a distressing surge in violations against minors in conflict zones.
Forced Recruitment: Child recruitment by armed groups increased by an estimated 64% in 2024-2025. Indigenous and Afro-Colombian children are disproportionately targeted.
School as a Target: Non-state armed groups have been reported using schools for military purposes or targeting students for "online grooming" and recruitment via platforms like TikTok.
5. Transition and Justice Accountability
As the 2016 Peace Agreement reaches its 10th anniversary, the transitional justice system (JEP) faces pressure to deliver final sentences.
Accountability for "False Positives": High-ranking military officials continue to face trial for the historic extrajudicial killings of civilians. While the first major convictions were seen as milestones, victims' groups in 2026 are demanding more comprehensive reparations and faster judicial processing.
Security for Ex-Combatants: The safety of those who signed the peace deal is a major concern; 45 former FARC combatants were killed in 2025 alone, highlighting the state's continued inability to protect those who laid down their arms.