Ethiopia
In early 2026, Ethiopia faces a critical juncture as it grapples with multiple overlapping conflicts, a shrinking democratic space ahead of the June 2026 national elections, and a severe humanitarian crisis. While the 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended the major war in Tigray, new localized conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions have led to fresh waves of atrocities and displacement.
1. Fragile Peace in Tigray and Renewed Clashes
The relative stability brought by the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) is under severe strain as of February 2026.
Renewed Border Conflicts: In late January 2026, serious military confrontations erupted in areas bordering Tigray, Amhara, and Afar (notably in Alamata and Abala). These clashes have displaced thousands and led the UN and EU to warn of a potential return to full-scale war.
Ongoing Abuses: In areas still occupied by Eritrean and Amhara forces, Tigrayans continue to face forced displacement, sexual violence, and arbitrary detention. The "right of return" for displaced Tigrayans remains largely unfulfilled, fueling deep local resentment.
2. The Conflict in Amhara: Drone Strikes and "Fano"
The conflict between the federal government and the Fano (Amhara ethnic militia) has escalated into a brutal war of attrition throughout 2025 and early 2026.
Aerial Warfare: The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has frequently used drone strikes in Amhara. In early February 2026, a strike in North Shewa reportedly killed a pregnant woman and her child, illustrating a pattern of civilian casualties in residential areas.
Summary Executions: Human rights monitors have documented extrajudicial killings by federal forces following operations to "clear" Fano fighters. Conversely, Fano forces have been accused of abducting and killing civil servants, specifically teachers, to enforce general strikes.
3. Oromia: The "Hidden" Insurgency
In Oromia, Ethiopia's most populous region, the conflict between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continues with extreme violence.
Atrocities on Both Sides: Reports in early 2026 highlight a cycle of summary executions, torture, and abductions. Amnesty International is preparing a major March 2026 report documenting "indiscriminate drone strikes" by the state and "ethnic massacres" attributed to armed groups.
Humanitarian Access: Conflict-driven displacement in Oromia has left millions without basic services. In central Oromia, drought and fighting have merged to create a "double catastrophe," forcing pastoralist communities to migrate.
4. Pre-Election Crackdown on Press and Civic Space
With national elections scheduled for June 2026, the government has significantly narrowed the space for dissent.
Assault on Independent Media: In January 2026, the Ethiopian Media Authority forced the closure of Wazema Media for reporting against "national interests." International public broadcasters like Deutsche Welle have also seen journalists permanently suspended.
Targeting Civil Society: The government recently introduced amendments to the 2019 Civil Society Law that grant the state sweeping powers to dissolve NGOs. Since late 2025, several prominent rights groups, including the Ethiopian Human Rights Council, have faced temporary suspensions or harassment.
5. Acute Food Insecurity and Displacement
Eritrea and Ethiopia currently share some of the highest global displacement and hunger statistics.
Food Crisis: As of February 2026, over 15 million people in Ethiopia require urgent food assistance. "Emergency" (IPC Phase 4) levels of hunger are emerging in Oromia and southern pastoralist areas due to crop failures and the residual effects of a historic late-2025 drought.
Internal Displacement: Over 4.4 million people are internally displaced. Humanitarian aid delivery is frequently blocked by active frontlines in Amhara and Oromia, or by administrative hurdles imposed on international aid agencies.