Somalia
As of February 2026, Somalia is navigating a period of intense instability as it prepares for a high-stakes transition. With the mandate of the current administration set to expire in May 2026, political tensions are rising alongside a worsening humanitarian crisis driven by a severe, prolonged drought.
1. Political Fragility and the 2026 Transition
The central theme of 2026 is the looming political deadline and the restructuring of security.
Election Standoff: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s mandate is due to expire on May 15, 2026. Opposition groups have grown increasingly vocal, accusing the government of attempting to delay the vote or manipulate electoral laws to extend the current term.
Security Handover: Following the withdrawal of African Union forces (ATMIS) in late 2024, the new AUSSOM mission and the Somali National Army (SNA) are struggling to hold territory. Al-Shabaab remains a potent threat, conducting frequent suicide bombings and IED attacks, particularly in the Banadir and Hirshabelle regions.
Judicial Overreach: Human rights reports from January 2026 highlight the continued use of military courts to try civilians for terrorism-related offenses. These courts often lack basic fair-trial standards and frequently issue death sentences.
2. The Execution Crisis
Somalia remains one of the few countries in the region that actively carries out the death penalty, often after summary proceedings.
Increased Executions: In 2025, Somalia executed dozens of individuals, with Puntland and the Federal Government often utilizing firing squads. In one high-profile incident in August 2025, ten people were executed in Puntland, including four who were allegedly minors at the time of their crimes.
Al-Shabaab Executions: In territories they control, Al-Shabaab continues to carry out public executions for "spying" or "apostasy," enforcing their strict, idiosyncratic interpretation of Sharia law.
3. Women’s Rights and Gender-Based Violence (GBV)
Women and girls in Somalia continue to face some of the most severe human rights challenges globally, exacerbated by displacement and climate shocks.
Prevalence of FGM: Somalia has the world’s highest rate of Female Genital Mutilation, affecting approximately 99% of women and girls. Despite a 2024 parliamentary push to ban the practice, legislative language remains ambiguous, and enforcement is non-existent in many regions.
Sexual Violence in Conflict: A January 2026 rapid assessment in the Gedo region found that displacement due to drought has triggered a surge in sexual violence. Vulnerable women in IDP camps often lack access to legal or medical support, with over 80% of GBV cases never reaching the formal judiciary.
The "Sexual Intercourse" Bill: Activists continue to fight against a regressive "Sexual Intercourse Bill" introduced by conservative MPs, which would potentially allow for child marriage and weaken protections against rape.
4. LGBTQ+ Rights: Total Invisibility and Danger
Somalia is one of the most dangerous places in the world for LGBTQ+ individuals.
Criminalization: Same-sex sexual activity is illegal under the 1964 Penal Code, carrying a sentence of up to 3 years. However, because the Constitution affirms the primacy of Sharia law, some courts—and non-state actors like Al-Shabaab—impose the death penalty for homosexual acts.
State of Invisibility: There is no public discussion of LGBTQ+ issues. In 2025, reports surfaced of "anti-gay operations" by police in Mogadishu, and many activists have been forced to flee the country to escape targeted assassinations.
5. Humanitarian Crisis and Forced Evictions
As of February 2026, a "localized but intense" drought has overtaken conflict as the primary driver of human rights violations.
Mass Displacement: In early February 2026 alone, over 66,000 people were displaced in the Mudug region due to severe water scarcity and livestock loss.
Violent Evictions: In Mogadishu, thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) face "forced evictions" from settlements by private landowners or local authorities. These evictions are often conducted with no prior notice and no resettlement plan, leaving families destitute and at risk of further abuse.